How Does the Employment Rate Look Structural?

It's dropped precipitously over the course of a financial catastrophe, must be a hopeless long-term trend...There is no evidence of structural unemployment. I don’t know how anyone can say with a straight face “The high rate is structural given long-term employment trends” or even “The high rate is now structural because the recession popped a labor bubble.” These arguments are hard to believe, unless you’re arguing that there has been a 30 year bubble where employment rates were artificial above 1980, and 1980 is the “natural” rate of employment. In that case, you are probably crazy, a chump, or pushing another agenda.

You can prefer to read your own tea leaves or use what actually happened in the past to anticipate the future. I’ll pick the latter.

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