Obama’s 2012 Chances Depend on How Bad the Republican Field Is

The much discussed 7.2% unemployment bar for presidential re-election is not very useful as a predictor. When discussing Obama’s reelection chances, I’m sticking with comparing Obama to the Republican the alternatives, and on the merits of the contenders. After all, we have a winner-takes-all electoral college. And the national impression is they suck, even most Republicans think they suck. It’ll come down to voters deciding if Obama sucks less than the Republican candidate would. This is all very scientific terminology.

Obama’s in a good place so many months out for such a terrible economy, compared to the terrible Republican field, at worst, he only also sucks.

Out of 1,000 people, the top responses for a one-word impression of the Republican presidential field is ‘unimpressed’ and ‘disappointed’ and negative words over positive words were used by a factor greater than 3.

Unimpressive is about right, which should be worrying to Republican partisans.

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