If You’re Wondering Why Mubarak Has Defied Its Benefactor

This is the most informative article on the situation in Egypt I’ve read. There isn’t an international Jewish conspiracy, but every US foreign policy analysis in the Middle East must include how that issue relates to Israel, or it doesn’t make sense.

http://www.juancole.com/2011/02/mubarak-defies-a-humiliated-america-emulating-netanyahu.html

Mubarak, after his 6 day hesitation, has likely decided that if Netanyahu can toss aside the Obama administration’s foreign policy plans and still gobble down billions in US aid a year, well then Egypt’s peace with Israel is the other part of Israel’s security so he’ll do the same, and ignore the Obama administration’s wish that the regime engage in regime change and treat protesters peacefully.

Look, if the protests dissolve, it’s effectively over for any significant regime change. It’s easier to beat and coerce small groups and individuals than large crowds. And it’s easy to disperse peaceful protests when you jam communications and forcibly separate large crowds into small crowds. This is the goal of the Egyptian regime, and seems to have the passive approval of the Army, who merely watched thousands of Mubarak thugs rush into the demonstrations and beat people yesterday.

If the regime’s goal is to survive, then we have to ask how the Egyptian government survives financially and politically. Politically it survives by the security apparatus of the Interior Ministry. Financially, it does so mainly through tourism, large government contracts to a small business elite in manufacturing and agriculture exports, Suez trade tariffs, and foreign aid.

The US-backed military dictatorship in Egypt has become, amusingly enough, a Bonapartist state. It exercises power on behalf of both a state elite and a new wealthy business class, some members of which gained their wealth from government connections and corruption. The Egypt of the Separate Peace, the Egypt of tourism and joint military exercises with the United States, is also an Egypt ruled by the few for the benefit of the few. (see link above)

This is the time when an effective and strong American government would end assistance to Egypt (and Israel), rationalizing that if you’re not going to adopt any of our foreign policy goals, there’s no reason to give you our money. Alas, the US do not have an effective government.

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