Oofa – Now That’s Some Inaccurate Polling

Some 13 of its [Rasmussen’s] polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998. NYT

I thought that polling this year would be revealed to be biased towards Republican candidates because 25% of US adults only use cell phones, which pollsters don’t normally use. I was wrong. I’d bet that US adults with only cell phones are mostly young and urban, which are strongly Democrat anyway, and traditional polling through land line phones is still accurate in the swing states and suburbs where Democrats were curb-stomped.

Rasmussen and its affiliate Fox News seem to be alright with blatantly inaccurate methodology. Rasmussen’s methodology has been suspect for years and they haven’t changed it. If you’re looking to predict election results in the next cycle, why would you hire Rasmussen? Bad for polling, bad for business, good for ideology I guess.

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