I’ve been really busy recently. Too busy to blog at least. I decided I needed some quick blog fodder, so I headed to Fox News. 30 seconds later I found something.
I’m sure most of you have heard of Paul, the octopus that has been “predicting” the outcomes of some world cup games. Some call him psychic. I call it a load of crap.
Fox News has a piece about the upcoming final Spain vs. Netherlands game. And Fox News, being Fox News, covered it without a shred of skepticism:
“Paul is such a professional oracle — he doesn’t even care that hundreds of journalists are watching and commenting on every move he makes,” said Stefan Porwoll, the Sea Life aquarium manager. “We’re so proud of him.”
Paul has been lucky, the odds were in his favour. He has correctly predicted six matches in a row. He had a 1 in 64 chance in doing that. For this next match his odds are 1 in 128. Still good. Much higher than winning the lottery, getting in a car accident, or dying in a plane crash. Its like flipping a coin seven times and calling it right seven times in a row. Far from impossible.
I would like to see him replicate his results in a controlled enviroment, without his handler present. I have a feeling it will turn out much like Clever Hans. Animals are smart and can read our reactions.
Anyway, expect it to remain slow for the next week or two.
And despite my fears about how people will react if Paul gets it right again, I’m routing for Spain.